A Pinoy Blog About Nothing

Oscar Predictions

Okay. Would you believe I actually got paid to do Oscar predictions? Even appeared in a morning show way back then. Ah those were the days - back when they were desperate. Hehe. Humility aside, I’ve gotten pretty good at it too. Why spend time and energy to do this? Wala lang. Kanya-kanyang trip lang talaga.

So, as in the past two years (didn’t do one last year) on this blog, let’s get on with the predictions for this year’s Oscars:

Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Best Supporting Actor: Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams
Best Actress: Charlize Theron, Monster
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Mystic River
Best Director: Peter Jackson, Return of the King
Best Picture: Return of the King

The Hedge

You have to remember that in the Oscars, reputation and momentum are much more deciding factors than the actual performances.

For Best Supporting Actress, you have past winners Holly Hunter and Renee Zellweger in contention. I have to go with Ms. Z just because Cold Mountain also made money at the box office.

For Best Actress, Naomi Watts is too fresh a face (see below) to win just yet. Theron might do a Nicole (The Hours) and get the statuette via prosthetics. But to be fair she was good in Monster.

For Best Actor, Jude Law could easily win this if only he’s been around as long as Sean Penn. But traditionally, the members of the Academy would vote for a person who has built enough of body of work before giving them the Oscar - regardless of their perfomance in their nominated work. Look at how Denzel Washington won an Oscar for Training Day. There are at least three other movies in which Mr. Washington should’ve won an Oscars. All a matter of timing. If there’s a dark horse in this category, it would have to be Bill Murray and not Johnny Depp.

For Best Director and Best Picture, I don’t see the possibility of a split. It would be one or the other. If Peter Jackson wins for Best Director, you can be sure the Best Picture will go to Return of the King. If not, I would have to go with Peter Weir and his Master and Commander. The Academy tend to like epics for these categories. I hope Jackson won’t get the Spielberg treatment (ie he needs to do his Schindler’s List before getting an Oscar).

Other notables: LOTR should also walk away with effects, muscial score, adapted screenplay. I’d like for City of God and Finding Nemo to walk away with Best Foreign Film something and Best Animated Feature respectively.

Update: Complete list of winners here. Best bits of the ceremonies: Billy Crystal’s intro, Will Ferrell and Jack Black’s presentation (quick! someone put this two in a buddy movie), Robin Williams goofing off on Janet Jackson, Bill Murray’s intro to Lost in Translation, Charlize Theron’s and Peter Jackson’s thank you speeches.