Foot in Mouth Dept: Oscars 2005
UPDATED 02/28/05. In a few hours the Oscar Awards begin over at the Left Coast. As in the tradition of CMMMO I try to predict the winners for the major categories. Why? I love movies. And it doesn’t cost anything. If you’re a betting person, you can see how I did in the past: 2001, 2002, 2004.
This year I got a little help frome RogerEbert.com. In editor Jim Emerson’s essay The Unwritten Rules of the Oscar, he eloquently draws the trend of the Academy Awards in the past years: that the awards are given to the ‘Most’ instead of the ‘Best’, that some awards are given as lifetime achievements instead of the artist’s current nominated projects and certain themes are more popular to the voters.
My guesses are based on how the Academy voted in the past. Mr. Emerson’s certainly helped elucidate some of those patterns which has emerged. And so, without further ado, the list:
The names/title with the asterisk is my bet to win:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby *
Jamie Foxx - Ray
This is a tough category to call. I think Clint Eastwood, who has never won an Oscar for Acting would get this. Although if Clint Eastwood wins this category, Aviator would go on to win for Best Director and Best Picture. Popular nominee Jamie Foxx is at a disadvantage because this is his first nomination ever. If they decide to give the award to some other actor and give Eastwood the Best Director pick, this category would have to go to DiCaprio.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Jamie Foxx - Collateral *
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen - Closer
If Jamie Foxx doesn’t win the Best Actor award, this is the sure win for him. If he wins Best Actor, the contest is between Alda and Freeman. Freeman’s got the inside track as he has been constantly nominated in the past but has never won an Academy award.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby *
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
This is a bit easier to call than the actor category. Swank’s advantage is of course the buzz Million Dollar Baby got from the press. The controversial ending got a lot of people talking. The only competition Swank has is from Annette Bening. If the Academy decides that Swank’s one Oscar win in the past is enough, Bening is a shoe in.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator *
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer
Except for Laura Linney, Cate Blanchett is the only Oscar veteran on the list. Blanchett has the advantage of being in an epic, period movie. Besides she was good in the Aviator.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Incredibles *
Shark Tale
Shrek 2
Uhm. Because it’s a personal favorite. :) The love that went into making this movie was apparent.
DIRECTING
The Aviator *
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
Vera Drake
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator *
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
I think the Academy would split the vote for Best Director and Best Picture. Normally, whoever wins the Best Director plum would also go on to win Best Picture. Makes sense right? This year I think the Oscar would go to Martin Scorsese for Best Director and Best Picture would go to Million Dollar Movie. The Denzel Washington Effect may come to play here: Scorsese has been nominated in the past. While The Aviator might not necessarily be his personal best, he’s due for an Oscar. If Clint Eastwood wins in the Best Actor category, Aviator would get both Best Director and Picture. The Academy love its epics and period flicks for the Best Picture category.
If there’s any justice in this world Best Adapted Screenplay would go to Sideways and Best Original Screenplay would go to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Costume and Art Direction would probably go to The Aviator (although from what I hear, it faces stiff competition from A Very Long Engagement in the Art Direction category).
See you back in a few and watch if I eat these words.
02/28/05
Yeah well okay. Got the Best Supporting Actor/Best Actor/Best Director wrong. Enh. I’m actually happy Morgan Freeman and Jamie Foxx took home Oscars although I feel bad about Marty Scorsese. (Wait. He makes millions. So scratch that.) I hope he makes a kick-@ss version of the Departed/Infernal Affairs.
I’m happy…
… that the Incredibles won for best animated feature
… that the Effects people of Spider-Man 2 won
… Sideways and Eternal Sunshine of A Spotless Mind won for their respective screenplay categories.
That was probably the most boring Oscars presentations I’ve seen on TV. Where’s Jack Black and Will Ferrell when you need them? Although that bit with Pierce Brosnan and Edna Mode was fun. And what’s with Sean Penn? Geez. Lighten up dude. Chris Rock is a comedian. Take it as such. Not everyone’s got a stick up their butt. It was kinda funny seeing Jude Law in almost all of the movies in the latter part of last year.
Oh and I like Johnny Depp’s tux.
10 Comments, Comment or Ping
jesse hernandez liwag
Actor - Leonardo (Like you said, he’s got a body of work. It’s about time too.)
Supporting Actor - Jamie (Everyone will say, let’s give him something.)
Actress - Annette (She can’t lose out to Hilary again!)
Supporting Actress - Cate (About time.)
Directing - Baby (Too small to get the Best Movie award.)
Movie- Aviador (Big enough to get the Best Movie award.)
Feb 27th, 2005
Al
Oh boy. Egg. Face? Clickmomukhamo - the only place to bet Eastwood for Best Actor, I admire your courage sir!
Feb 28th, 2005
markmomukhamo
haha that’s why I have that title Al! good thing I’m not a betting man.
jesse, early on there I thought Aviator would go on a winning streak. it was sporting of giamatti to attend despite the snub.
Feb 28th, 2005
Angela
Sedricke got it all except for the best supporting actor. Hehe. :)
Sayang me pa-raffle dun sa video store eh, di ata tama yung ibang hula ko sayang. Hehe.
Feb 28th, 2005
melissa
Well, they snubbed Scorsese again, how predictable.
Feb 28th, 2005
Junnie
did you notice mark that they dressed up the Oscar trophy. it seemed to be in a tight shirt with the sleeves cut-out. la lang. reeling off from the 6th snob of scorsese.
Mar 1st, 2005
jesse hernandez liwag
I do agree that it was so boring, but not as bad as the BAFTA Awards.
I like it that Eternal Sunshine won for Best Screenplay. If you want to avail of the services shown in the movie, pls visit http://www.lacunainc.com.
Mar 1st, 2005
BW
Just too many awards.. Golden Globe winers will find it hard to win an Oscar. There’s no integrity in the win. It’s a matter of sharing the pie. There should be only 1 academy to give awards.
Mar 2nd, 2005
melissa
I still say, Scorsese should have a better lobbyist haha.
Mar 3rd, 2005
markmomukhamo
Gelay, buti na lang talaga di ako pumusta hehe. Ah well you get good years. This isn’t one of them.
Melissa, yeah I think Scorsese didn’t campaign hard enough. Maybe it was beneath him and all that but still…I hope he gets angry and comes up with a kick ass movie next time.
Junnie, they’ve even made Oscar politically correct? What’s next? Make it anatomically correct? It was weird how they handed out those awards on the stage and over at the audience. Awkward.
Jesse, yay for Kaufman! I don’t need Lacuna’s services. I forget things on my own. :)
Hi BW! Thanks for dropping-by. I thought there were too many awards. And the song performances didn’t help speed it along.
Mar 4th, 2005
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